Subject: WAR FACTS BY ZUBEIDA JAFFER

  

THE THREAT TO WORLD PEACE

 Peace marches take place in about 400 towns and cities around the world this weekend in protest against a possible war with Iraq. Organisers say the marches are likely to add up to the largest single day of protest in world history.

On the face of it, this could prompt us to believe that there are millions of people around the world that support the Iraqi regime of Saddam Hussein. His regime like a number of other regimes across the world cannot be held up high as an example of democracy.  Few dispute that he is a dictator responsible for the death of large numbers of his own citizens. He has also so far failed to adequately account for weapons of mass destruction that many believe to be in his possession.

Why then is the world rallying in such huge numbers to stop a war against him?

 THE IMPACT

 While some are motivated by their dislike for the superpowers, the USA and Britain, many have come to understand how such a war will impact on them directly.   

 Lets take South Africa. When countries are at war, all resources are directed to the war effort. Attention to development in under-development countries will have a low priority. Progress in Africa will be put on hold. The war-making countries will run a siege economy to maintain the war. With the global economy under siege, we will have to pay more to import crude oil and all internationally traded commodities such as steel and maize. This will reduce the level of foreign exchange creating a base for inflation.

This will mean that we cannot expand our economy and create more jobs but will have to struggle to have enough resources to secure basic commodities at a premium.

 THE OIL INDUSTRY

The main beneficiary of a war on Iraq will be the oil industry in the USA. By securing access to Iraq’s oil reserves the USA will have even greater leverage over global politics.

 At present the major oil supplier in the world is Saudi Arabia. But the US feels it can no longer rely on it because it is a powder keg waiting to explode with a huge number of unemployed, disaffected and increasingly anti-American youth. Iraq has the second-highest oil reserves in the world and potentially vast untapped oil wells.  It currently exports 1.5 million barrels of oil per day, but this could increase to 6 million barrels with a five-year investment in the Iraqi oil industry. It is well known that the Texas based Exxon-Mobil, the largest US oil company, has held discussions with George Bush about restructuring Iraq’s oil industry, and contributed US$ 1.2 million to his election campaign.

 Interestingly the top politicians in the US all come with a background in the oil industry. President George Bush was the Senior Executive of the Harkin Oil Company from 1986 to 1990.

Vice-President Dick Cheney was the Chief Executive of Haliburton Oil Company from 1995-2000, and Condoleeza Rice was the Senior Executive of Chevron Oil Company from 1991-2000.

 THE DOLLAR AND THE EURO

 An Irish organisation called Feasta has added another dimension that deepens the explanation for war. It reports that in November 2000, Iraq switched to selling oil for Euros and not dollars.

Until recently all OPEC countries agreed to sell their oil for dollars only. If OPEC were to decide to accept Euros only for its oil, then American economic dominance would be over. Not only would Europe not need dollars anymore, but Japan which imports over 80% of its oil from the Middle East would have to convert most of its dollar assets to Euro assets. The US on the other hand, being the world’s largest oil importer would have to acquire Euro reserves. In other words we could be observing the dethroning of the US dollar as a medium of exchange for

internationally traded goods with the Euro as its substitute.

 While the dollar remains the world reserve currency, this gives a huge subsidy to the US economy because if a country wants to hold lots of dollars in reserve they must supply the US with goods and services in return for those dollars. The more dollars that are circulating outside the US, the more goods and services, the US has imported virtually for free. It is in effect getting a massive interest-free loan from the rest of the world.

One of the primary objectives of setting up the Euro was to try and get some of this for Europe. 

It is therefore not in Europe’s interest at all to go to war with Iraq.

 POLITICAL CONTROL 

Instead of tackling the ongoing problem between the Palestinian’s and the Israeli’s and resolving a crisis that tears all of us apart, the US is focussing attention on a sideshow.  In addition to oil as a motivation, an occupation of Iraq would enable the US to strategically control the Middle East. Iran would be surrounded, Israel would emerge as the dominant power, and the US would control the most extensive river system in the Middle East – in Iraq.

 Despite concern with this oil agenda, the peace movement supports calls for Iraq to implement a comprehensive programme of nuclear disarmament and the destruction of weapons of mass destruction. South Africa’s President Mbeki has sent an emissary to Hussein to this effect.

The alternative to war is to give greater support to the United Nations weapon inspectors so that it becomes impossible for Saddam Hussein to use chemical weapons believed to be in his possession.

The attention to Hussein is disproportionate however if one considers that Iraq is not the only country with these weapons. The US and Britain are culprits and so are North Korea and Israel.

In particular, the Israeli government stands in brazen violation of numerous UN resolutions.

 THE HUMAN CONSEQUENCES

 The World Health Organisation(WHO)  has warned that up to half a million Iraqis could be killed or maimed in military strikes, given that the US is planning to launch more missiles in one day than were used throughout the Gulf War in 1991.  

 TAKING ACTION

When millions march this weekend, they march to oppose the war position of the US and the UK but also to urge Iraq to disarm. Those of us in the developing world will be joined by thousands in the developed countries who do not support the war-mongering of their governments threatening to lead us to a Third World War.

A quarter of a million people marched recently in Washington. Thousands have taken to the

streets in Britain.

Killing people to save them from dictatorship cannot be a solution.

 

Compiled and written by Zubeida Jaffer, journalist and political analyst.

For the Wynberg Anti-War Coalition.

 MARCH STARTS AT 10A.M SATURDAY MORNING 15 FEBRUARY NEAR THE CAPE

TECHNIKON IN DISTRICT SIX